Study creates model to predict lifetime risk of heart failure


The first risk prediction model for lifetime risk of heart failure was developed and validated in a new study published in the journal, Circulation Research, allowing for more proactive preventions.

The study, conducted by Northwestern University Medicine, observed 24,838 participants between the ages of 20 and 59-years-old who did not have cardiovascular disease. Researchers estimated risk of heart failure based on simple risk factors like body mass index, smoking status, and blood pressure. To account for differing risks of heart failure among certain demographics, models were derived in demographic subgroups.

After 599,551 person-years of follow up, researchers were able to derive and validate 30-year heart failure risk equations that were sex and race specific. Previous models only predicted risk within the next five to ten years. With a 30-year warning of heart failure, better disease prevention may be possible.